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 [ Text Menu: Today's Stack of Stuff | Audio | About Ralph | Contact Ralph | Ralph Rant! ]September 6, 2010 

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The Ralph Rant



GOP fumbles Dem talking point
Ralph Bristol
July 19, 2010

Republicans are once again showing their ineptitude at challenging Democrat talking points.

 

Time after time, on this Sunday’s TV talk shows, Democrats accused Republicans – whom they are trying to stop from regaining control of the House – of wanting to revert back to the “failed Bush economic policies that got us into this mess.”

 

Not one Republican on the same shows challenged the Dems to specify what “failed economic policies” or which “mess” they were referring to. Had they done so, they could have easily dismantled the charge. But alas, the phrase of the day went unchallenged in any meaningful way.

 

A President’s economic policies are limited to two – the same ones Congress helps control. Those are taxes and spending. One can only assume that they are not talking about spending, since spending has jumped about $1 trillion since President Bush left the White House, so we have to assume they are referring to taxes.  The fact that Democrats are constantly complaining about and vowing to end Bush’s “tax cuts for the rich” provide further evidence that their complain is about tax cuts – specifically tax cuts for the rich.

 

But what “mess” did tax cuts for the rich create?  The recession?  Could they really be making that claim, since the recession started some seven years after the tax cuts? It’s pretty well documented and agreed that the recession was the product of severe problems in the housing market and the financial markets tied to the housing market. I doubt even Democrats would argue that the Bush tax cuts created that problem.

 

But – they hate the Bush tax cuts for the rich – and people are suffering because of a recession that started during the Bush presidency – so the Dems have adopted the refrain “failed Bush economic policies that got us into this mess” as a catchy phrase that they hope will sway voters.  And it will, if Republicans don’t demonstrate more aptitude than they did this weekend at demonstrating the phrase is ignorant, which it is.

 

At best, Democrats could construct an argument that the Bush tax cuts helped increase the deficit and the resulting debt. Deficits and debt are a product of a difference between revenue and spending. Taxes do have an effect on revenues. So, you at least have a link between the action and the claim. The phrase, “Bush’s economic policies got us into this mess” identifies neither the action, nor the unpopular consequence.

 

So – let’s examine the only possible Democrat claim that can be gleaned from the phrase that might make at least some sense – that the Bush tax cuts created the deficits and debt.

 

Figures from the Treasury Department show that in 2001, the year most of the Bush tax cuts were passed and became effective, federal revenues totaled $1.991 trillion. In 2008, the last year of the Bush presidency, federal revenues totaled $2.524 trillion, an increase of 27 percent between 2001 and 2008.

 

That was slightly lower than the 33 percent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) during the same period, so Democrats can argue that revenues did not keep pace with GDP.

 

But spending, during the same period, increased from $1.863 trillion to $2.982 trillion – an increase of 60 %.  Spending increased 60% while revenues increased by 27% and GDP increased 33 percent. Which of those figures seems most out of line with the other two? The answer of course is the spending figure.  But the Democrat complain is always about the tax cuts, and only the tax cuts on the rich.

 

It is impossible to demonstrate the President Bush’s tax cuts for the rich are largely, or even significantly, responsible for the increased deficit and debt.  Even given static analysis, which the CBO uses because it can’t accurately calculate the affect that tax cuts have on economic activity, the portion of the tax cuts that went to the rich would have very little impact on the debt that has accumulated since 2001.

 

Even if revenues had kept up with economic growth, revenue would have increased 33 percent during the period rather than 27 percent, while spending would have increased 60 percent. The difference between 27 and 33 percent is relatively small. The difference between either 27 or 33 and 60 percent creates a large deficit and debt.  The problem obviously is not taxes, but spending.

 

Between the beginning of 2001 and the end of 2008, our economy had a very healthy annual growth rate, averaging 4.1 percent a year. Federal revenues grew at a reasonably healthy 3.5% annually. Spending grew at an average annual rate of 7 percent. President Bush was a big spender, but not nearly as big as our Democrat President and his Democrat Congress.

 

Since 2008 – in 2009 and 2010 – spending has exploded, as has the deficit and debt. Part of that is because of falling revenues, but more of it is because of a 25% jump in spending in each of the last two years, compared to 2008.

 

So, I repeat – exactly what Bush economic policy do Democrats blame for the “mess” we’re in, and which “mess” are they talking about.

 

It’s more likely that the Bush tax cuts, especially the tax cuts on the rich, helped the economy rebound from the effects of the stock market crash that began at the end of the Clinton administration, and the economic effects of the 9/11 attack on America in Bush’s first year.

 

I don’t think even the dumbest Democrat would blame the latest recession on the Bush tax cuts – and – as I’ve proven – you also can’t blame the deficits and the debt on the tax cuts – so what’s left?  Are they trashing the Bush spending binge? Can you fix a spending binge with a much bigger spending binge? 

 

There is no rhyme more reason to the new Democrat campaign mantra that Republicans want to “revert back to the failed Bush economic policies that got us into this mess.” But that won’t matter unless Republicans are smart enough and aggressive enough to craft a snappy answer to that simplistic charge – and I’ve seen no evidence yet that they are equipped to do so.

 

The 2010 Congressional elections are the Republicans to lose. Public opinion is mounting against the Democrat’s big, expensive policies. Republicans can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory if they allow this kind of vacuous mantra to saturate the campaign ether. Voters are swayed by simple statements that appear to make sense even if they are false. This is exactly the kind of talking point that scores points even though it’s not true. Democrats repeatedly lobbed this fat one over the Republicans plate on this weekend’s Sunday shows and not one Republican took a swing at it. It was pathetic, but all too common Republican performance.

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